Another week, another by election. This time in Batley & Spen in West Yorkshire. After the loss of Hartlepool and the disastrous vote in Chesham & Amersham, Sir Keir needs to win to maintain any sort of credibility. And it’s not looking good.
This would have been a tough contest anyway. Labour has held the seat since 1997, but since then its vote share has been slowly reducing from 49% to 42.7% in 2019. (A trend only bucked by the by election following Jo Cox’ death when the main parties did not stand out of respect, and the 2017 election.)(1) The Tories lost by only 3,500 votes last time, making it very winnable, especially in this by election, with the Tories riding high in the North.
Batley & Spen is an area with lower average incomes than the rest of Yorkshire, and includes some of the highest areas of deprivation in the country. It has an aging population and a growing Asian community. (2) It is not surprising that issues such as local services, employment, social care. Palestine, Kashmir and Islamophobia are important here.
In choosing a candidate, it seemed, at first, as if Labour might have learnt a lesson from Hartlepool by not parachuting a candidate in. Kim Leadbeater, sister of the murdered MP Jo Cox, who lives and works in the constituency, and has been given an MBE for her work on social cohesion, appeared to be a sensible choice. Except, she wasn’t a member of Labour, and the rules had to be bent to rush her application so she could stand, which slightly undermined her at the beginning.
Still, Leadbeater is working hard and aside from an excruciating endorsement of Theresa May’s ‘there is no magic money tree’, she has some positive policies and is clearly someone who would be a good local MP as her sister was.
So why is she struggling?
Well firstly, there’s the arrival of George Galloway standing for yet another self-created party, with the sole mission it seems to unseat Sir Keir. It would seem to be a vanity/revenge project. However, he hasn’t come on his own volition, but at the invitation of local Muslims, concerned about Sir Keir’s lack of support for Palestine and Kashmir and Labour’s inability to deal with islamophobia (3). While Galloway is always a controversial figure, and has questionable views and associates, there is no doubt that he is still warmly regarded in the region for his opposition to the Iraq war, and the perception that he was a successful MP for Bradford West. He’s an attractive choice for a community who feel Labour have taken their votes for granted.
Secondly, it is not just Muslims who care about Palestine (particularly after the recent incursions by Israel), but there are other reasons why people might not vote Labour. As with other parts of the country, there is a belief that the local council is responsible for austerity (& Huddersfield gets more of the money). They’ve noticed that the Tories are offering financial support for communities like theirs and they want some of it (4).
Thirdly, it seems that there is a perception that the Tories have an 80 seat majority, so if they win one more won’t make a difference. But it might make Labour sit up and take notice. (5).
It needn’t be like this. Labour shouldn’t have to be working this hard. Corbyn won this seat twice. Though 2019 saw the party’s vote share go down (as it had in Hartlepool and Chesham & Amersham), a clear message and respect for his base was convincing enough for people to stick with Labour. At the risk of repeating ourselves, all Sir Keir needed to do here, would have been to stick with the 2017/2019 manifestos and demonstrate he cared about every Labour voting community.
Of course, he has done the opposite, and with tensions rising high on the campaign trail (Leadbeater was harassed at the weekend by a group led by an unpleasant homophobe from Birmingham leading to unpleasant Islamophobia directed at local Muslims), the outcome remains uncertain.
If Starmer wins, it will be due to the dedication of Leadbeater and her team of activists who have been working hard to get the vote out rather than anything he has to offer. But he will see it as vindication and stare down any calls for his resignation..
Even if he loses it looks likely that he’ll do the same, particularly now he has replaced his communications team. (6) Based on previous form, he’ll fail to take responsibility, and it will be the candidate, or his previous team or Muslim voters that are to blame. But the fault, as with any leader, will lie with him.
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Readers of this website will Recall that we wrote to Sir Keir & his Advisors over the last year, suggesting Ways that Labour’s fortunes could Be Improved. Alas! We were Ignored, but you can Read our Letters Here.
We Still Believe all is not Quite Lost for Labour & there is an Alternative Path the Party could Take. Our latest Pamphlet presents Reasoned Arguments for why we need a New Shadow Cabinet & Who should be in It. You can read it Here.
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Wikipedia. Batley and Spen Constituency.
Helen Pidd. The Guardian. 23/5/21. ‘Jo Cox’ sister selected as Labour candidate for Batley and Spen.'
Aaron Bastini. Novara Media. 25/6/21. ‘‘It’s Only the Start’: George Galloway’s Bid for Batley and Spen Could Leave Starmer Staring Into the Abyss.
Owen Jones. 16/6/21. Whether or not the party wins Batley and Spen, Labour is in trouble. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/16/labour-batley-and-spen-jeremy-corbyn-scottish-voter
Aaron Bastini. Novara Media. 25/6/21. ‘‘It’s Only the Start’: George Galloway’s Bid for Batley and Spen Could Leave Starmer Staring Into the Abyss.
Paul Waugh. Huffington Post. 28/6/21. Can Keir Starmer bounce back from a Batley and Spen by-election loss?