Background
The Scottish Parliament elections were held against the backdrop of three major issues, covid, independence and divisions in the SNP caused by the fall out from the investigations into the Salmond trial.
Nicola Sturgeon’s handling of covid resulted in a huge surge for the SNP and independence at the beginning of the year, leading to suggestions that the party might win an overall majority. However, as the election approached, as the vaccination programme proved slightly more successful in England than Scotland, and the inquiries into the SNP's handling of the Salmond trial reached a head, the polls began to go in the other direction.
When a committee of MSPs found Sturgeon had misled Parliament over the Salmond inquiry, the Tories held a no confidence vote. Though this failed, Scottish Labour hoped enough people would turn away from the SNP and give them enough votes to overtake the Tories as the biggest opposition party in Holyrood. At the same time, they joined with the Tories to encourage pro-unionist voters to vote tactically to stop the SNP.
While Sturgeon's standing was undoubtedly affected by these issues and conflict within the SNP leading to her former mentor creating a new party, Alba, her calmness in the face of an 8 hour grilling by the committee gained her plaudits, Her position was also strengthened when an independent inquiry ruled she had not breached the ministerial code. As a result, as the election entered its final stages, the SNP also pushed for tactical voting to ensure a pro-independence majority.
Results
The final election results returned a Holyrood that didn’t look too different from the previous one. The SNP gained 1 seat, the Greens 2; Labour lost 2 seats, the Lib Dems,1. The SNP are again the largest party, 1 seat short of a full majority, but due to the increase in Green seats, there is now a majority for independence at Holyrood, and a second referendum is inevitable.
The SNP has been in the driving seat in Scottish politics for a decade, and it is worth taking some time to consider why that is, and what Labour in particular, can learn from their success.
1. Competence isn’t enough. Sir Keir Starmer has spent the last year trying to demonstrate he can win because he is competent. It has failed to break through because competence isn’t enough. Nicola Sturgeon will continue to win in Scotland as in addition to her abilities and considerable grace under fire, she is able to articulate a clear vision of why independence will make life better for ordinary people. She also appears authentic, as demonstrated by her calm but strong rebuttal of a far right voter on election day, and her willingness to describe her as racist.
2. An independence referendum is inevitable. Since 2014, Scottish Labour has resolutely backed the unionist position and refused to countenance a second referendum. The results of this strategy are clear – it is not working. For Labour to have any chance of recovery, it needs to accept this inevitability and allow its members and MSPs to take sides, as it did in Brexit. This is the only way Scottish Labour has a future. If ‘no’ wins again, the issue is unlikely to go away, and if ‘yes’ wins, the party will retain credibility in a future independent state.
3. Ditch the Tories. While the Tory vote in Scotland is strong in unionist areas, it is weak everywhere else. Labour’s decision to stand with the Tories in 2014, was critical in it’s loss of Westminster seats. If it wants to ever regain Holyrood, it needs to divest itself of this uncomfortable legacy.
Speaking at the Progressive Britain conference at the weekend, Anas Sarwar acknowledged that Scottish Labour had work to do, and that they need to blame voters less and engage more emotionally. So he, at least, may have understood some of the factors that are behind the SNP's success. However, rather than choosing the moment to acknowledge the second referendum will be going ahead, he chose to berate the SNP for pushing for independence. If he continues with the blinkered approach of his many predecessors, he may find it costs Scottish Labour dear.