Labour had cause to celebrate in the mayoral elections, gaining two from the Tories (Cambridgeshire & Peterborough and West of England), while the Tories retained Tees Valley and West Midlands. Labour now holds the vast majority of Mayoral posts in the country.
At first glance, the mayoral elections are a triumph for Labour, and a worry for the Tories, who are apparently looking to change the electoral system back to first past the post to ensure it doesn’t happen in future. However, the wins, are not as straightforward as they seem.
First round wins.
The four first round wins can be seen as decisive Labour victories. The best of these was Andy Burnham’s 67% in Manchester, whose popularity increased at the end of 2020 when he stood up to Boris Johnson, and with a manifesto pledge of renationalizing buses. Paul Dennett in Salford & Steve Rotherham also did extremely well standing on strong socialist platform. While Norma Redfearn, a popular local candidate in North Tyneside, was re-elected on a third term promising green jobs.
Second round wins
Labour gained three new councils as a result of picking up Lib Dem and Green votes in the second round – Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, the new West Yorkshire and West of England. It is worth noting that they benefited greatly from the fact there were no UKIP or independent candidates. However, the West of England race saw the Greens gaining, possibly a fall out from the suspensions in Labour’s regional party.
The other incumbencies all saw Labour with a reduced vote in the first round, but winning in the second. Again, Labour paid the price for the suspensions of CLP members in Bristol, where the Greens surged to second place, giving them a real chance next time. In Liverpool, a combination of the corruption charges against former mayor Joe Anderson, and the messy selection process of his successor, resulted in the vote going to second ballot for the first time, with the independent candidate picking up 40% of the final vote. It is wonderful that Joanne Anderson is Liverpool’s first black woman mayor, but she has a huge task ahead of her to regain public trust. If she is unable to do that, next time round, Liverpool looks less secure.
Although Doncaster elected Ros Jones for the third time, it was on a reduced majority, suggesting the mayoralty could be vulnerable to the Tories if they continue to do well in the north.
While in London, Sadiq Khan, despite having polled well during the election, also had a reduced majority, with the Tory candidate Shaun Bailey doing better than expected. Again suggesting this one might be vulnerable to the Tories next time, particularly if Khan’s second term is as underwhelming as his first.
The clear message from mayoral elections is that Labour wins best when it has a strong local candidate committed to understanding local issues, willing to campaign on progressive left policies. Despite the wins, there is no cause for complacency as Bristol and Liverpool have demonstrated the problems created by division and lack of democracy in the party and Doncaster and London indicate the Tories could win with the right candidate. And if the Tories follow through on their promise to make Mayoral elections first past the post, then many more will be up for grabs.
Yet again, one is led to conclude that contrary to the view of those on the right in Labour, left wing policies are popular with the electorate, and when combined with a strong candidate, they deliver decisive victories.