On Hartlepool

The scale of defeat in Hartlepool should not be underestimated. This was a seat Labour managed to hold onto in 2019, during the Tory rout of northern seats, gaining 37.7% of the vote and a majority of 3,595. Jill Mortimer, the Tory candidate won with 51.1% of the vote nearly doubling the majority to 6,940. As with most by elections, turnout was low (29,333 as opposed to 41,307). Sir Keir Starmer was quick to blame his predecessor for the loss. This sentiment was echoed by former Blair advisor and Hartlepool MP, Peter Mandleson, who suggested it was due to covid and ‘long Corbyn’ (a current piece of ‘wit’ doing the rounds that has more than a whiff of disablism about it). We’d argue that the truth is somewhat different, and blaming Jeremy Corbyn and covid for this disaster simply doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. As with all politics, there are a number of factors that played a part, some of which we brought to Sir Keir’s attention way back in March. 1. Imposing a candidate on the local party. Choosing a doctor to stand in Hartlepool during a pandemic wasn’t in itself a bad thing. But deciding that the CLP would not have a choice in the matter, started the campaign off on a bad note, and alienated the very people the party needed to help him get elected. The error was compounded by choosing a hard core Remainer in what is still a very Leave area. Despite everyone’s wishful thinking, Brexit wounds have yet to heal, it was unwise to further inflame them. 2. Closing down the community organizing unit. The two year old community organizing unit was beginning to make successful inroads in key elections. An energised team could have made all the difference in Hartlepool, instead they were demoralized as they campaigned while working out their notices. 3. Teeside Mayor.The local Tory mayor has proved very popular by bringing money into the region and by having a positive commitment to the area. That and the fact that Tory seats won in 2019 have benefited financially, were surely an encouragement to people to vote Tory. 4. Demography. Northern seats like Hartlepool are changing, with young people on lower incomes leaving for the cities to work, leaving behind older voters who are often home owners and socially conservative. Despite Brexit reducing the vote share in 2019, Corbyn’s Labour won the seat, because it had a strong manifesto with elements that would appeal to this demography as well as the younger progressives in cities. 5. Lack of vision. One of the biggest complaints against Sir Keir Starmer has been that under his leadership Labour lacked vision, as demonstrated by the excruciating interchange between Owen Jones and Dr Paul Williams (Hartlepool candidate) in Jones's recent film during the campaign. The Tory vision for Hartlepool isn’t a convincing one, but the promise of more money for the area, was enough for the Tories to gain 3,660 votes from 2019. 6. Voter apathy. While turn out was typical for a by election, the fact that 13,000 voters stayed home undoubtedly played its part. How many of those voters might have voted Labour if they’d had something worth turning out for? A thoughtful leader might take some time to consider these different factors, and recalibrate his course. Alas! Sir Keir seems more intent on returning to the cul de sac of Blair’s third way, and blaming his immediate predecessor and female shadow cabinet members, then changing direction. Which suggests that unfortunately, with the Batley and Spen by election in the offing, there is more pain to come.