We’ve just brushed the dust off the feet of Hartlepool, to find two more by-elections in the offing, Chesham & Amersham in Buckinghamshire and Batley & Spen in West Yorkshire. Two very different parts of the country with two very different electoral challenges.
Chesham & Amersham, which takes place today, is the truest of True Blue Tory constituencies. Its mix of excellent transport routes to London and the glorious countryside of the Chilterns makes it the natural home of the establishment (After all, Chequers is just up the road). The Tories have always won here with majorities of between 50 & 63% and Cherry Gillan, whose death sparked the by election, held the seat since 1992.(1)
It’s not a promising electoral prospect for Labour who have come third behind the Liberal Democrats in every election except 2017, but they should be fighting here anyway. Any party serious on gaining power should use every opportunity available to it to get its message out. It’s an excellent way to test ideas and generate enthusiasm, while even incremental growth can be a sign of hope (for example, in 1987 and 1992, Labour increased its vote share by 1.1%, at the Labour landslide in 1997 this went up a massive 9.2%).
If Sir Keir had any clue about political strategy, he’d have taken some time to reflect on the lessons of voting patterns between 2010 and 2019.
In 2010, Labour had its worst ever result under Gordon Brown gaining only 5.6% of the vote, as a combination of the banker’s crash, end of austerity and two younger more charismatic leaders in the Lib Dems and Tories. Ed Milband’s Labour managed to recover most of what was lost in 2015, regaining 7%, as the Lib Dems bore the brunt of voter anger over austerity. The party still came second to a resurgent UKIP whose anti EU message resonated.
It was in 2017, under Jeremy Corbyn that Labour gained a further 7%, taking 20% of the vote share and second place, with UKIP coming fifth. Labour’s clear policy agenda had obviously cut through in a strong Tory area. putting a lie to the belief that Labour can only win from the right. Yet two years later the party came 3rd again, despite having changed its referendum position to one that was more palatable to voters in a strong Remain area, suggesting that the changed policy just confused voters in an election that was cast as being all about Brexit.
Now Brexit is done, Labour would have been wise to campaign again on the Corbyn pledges of 2017 and 2019, some of which, like rural broadband and nationalisation of the railways, have proved prescient. 2017 & subsequent national polling show these ideas are popular, and even more relevant now we’ve lived through a pandemic. Furthermore, like Sussex and Chingford, although the population of Amersham & Chesham is still 91% white, a growth in the Asian community is gradually having an impact.(2) Meanwhile social care, always important for sick and disabled people, is becoming increasingly relevant due to the rising numbers of elderly people. Throw in Johnson’s draconian police bill, HS2 & an an attack on the planning laws that protect the Chiltern countryside, and Labour could have stood on a ‘build back better’ ticket that would be popular with those who are beginning to vote Anyone But Conservative. (ABC).
Instead, Labour has barely paid attention to the constituency while the new Breakthrough Party is giving these messages(3). Though, like the Northern Independence Party, they probably won’t get many votes, their presence in the race points to what Labour is lacking. Meanwhile the Lib Dems are experiencing a major comeback as disillusioned Tories are flocking to them, particularly as they are making opposition to HS2 and planning laws a major part of their platform. (4,5)We all know the Lib Dems are prone to exaggeration, so we take their 'neck and neck' predictions with a pinch of salt. To achieve their hoped for 41%, they need to gain 15% of the vote share from their 2019 position from the Tories and Labour. While they could pick up votes from both, so too could the Greens and Breakthrough, pro/anti Europe and anti vaxxer candidates, ensuring the Tories keep the seat. But, by elections are funny things, and a close result, or unlikely upset could possibly be on the cards. And if that happens, it will be the Lib Dems who win the battle of perceptions and Labour will look like failures yet again.
This by election has been another missed opportunity for Sir Keir’s Labour to shine. With growing concerns about the loss of Muslim voters in Batley & Spen, and the possibility of losing votes to all his opponents in Amersham & Chesham there's even a chance he could do worse than 2010. He may live to regret not paying more attention to the voters of the Chilterns.
1. Wikipedia. Chesham and Amersham, UK Parliament constituency https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chesham_and_Amersham_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
2. Old Bucks CC website. Amersham and Chesham Locality Profile. https://old.buckscc.gov.uk/media/3500168/amersham-and-chesham-locality-report.pdf
3. Breakthrough Party Website.
4. Kate Proctor, Politics Home.16/6/21. Amersham and Chesham by election is believed to be neck and neck. https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/claims-amersham-and-chesham-byelection-will-go-down-to-the-wire
5. Julia O'Driscoll. This Week. 16/6/21. Can the Liberal Democrats win Chesham and Amersham by election https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/politics/953172/can-liberal-democrats-win-chesham-amersham-by-election